A 12 months in the past, the Patriots traveled to Buffalo as two-touchdown underdogs.
A 12 months later, not a lot has modified.
The Pats are once more dealing with the biggest level unfold they’ve seen since 1992, stumbling right into a matchup towards arguably one of the best workforce within the NFL. The Payments are recent off a win at Detroit, the place they toppled the No. 1 seed within the NFC. Josh Allen seems ticketed for his first MVP trophy, whereas Buffalo chases down Kansas Metropolis for the highest seed within the AFC.
So, do the Pats have a prayer in upstate New York? Right here’s what to look at for in Week 16:
When the Patriots run
Would you imagine Antonio Gibson is taking part in like among the finest working backs within the league?
By Professional Soccer Focus grades and yard after contact, that’s precisely what he’s doing.
Gibson averages 4.09 yards after contact this season, second-most within the league amongst backs with at the very least 50 carries. He compelled 11 missed tackles final week at Arizona, piling up 64 yards on simply 9 carries. Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson, who loved a bounce-back sport towards the Cardinals, will possible be tasked with hammering away at a softer Payments run protection to empty clock and shorten the sport.
Buffalo has allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season, together with greater than 120 yards in 4 of their final six video games.
When the Patriots cross
Drake Maye spoke this week about discovering a steadiness between taking what the protection provides him and letting it fly downfield. These days, Maye has opted too typically for the check-down, which signifies the Pats might get extra aggressive in Buffalo.
In that case, that can require shopping for Maye time towards edge-rushers Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who’ve mixed for 12.5 sacks, 32 QB hits and 4 compelled fumbles this 12 months. That can put numerous stress on an offensive line that held the offense again within the first half towards Arizona. If Maye has time, search for photographs downfield to Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne round targets over the center for tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.
If the Payments make use of an identical strategy as different opponents, the Patriots could overcome an sudden charge of man protection. That ought to result in corners Taron Johnson and Rasul Douglas, who’re their lowest-graded defensive backs after they play man-to-man.
When the Payments run
Payments working again James Cook dinner is having fun with a Professional Bowl marketing campaign, speeding for 828 yards and 13 touchdowns to date this season. He’s the point of interest of a flexible run sport fronted by a beefy offensive line constructed to play within the chilly climate forward Sunday.
However don’t overlook about Josh Allen, who rushed for 3 touchdowns final weekend at Detroit. Allen is a weapon on short-yardage and close to the purpose line, with 11 speeding touchdowns this season.
“There are guidelines round tackling quarterbacks, however he can also run you over, run round you, and likewise nonetheless keep being a passer as he will get exterior the pocket,” Pats coach Jerod Mayo stated. “These are simply the challenges that he places on defenses.”
With out defensive lineman Christian Barmore, veterans Davon Godchaux and Daniel Ekuale will probably be compelled to play further snaps and maintain up towards Buffalo’s speeding assault. Linebackers Jahlani Tavai and Christian Elliss should additionally match runs higher than current weeks.
When the Payments cross
No Stefon Diggs, no drawback.
Allen has thrived spreading the ball round this season, with a large receiver (Khalil Shakir), tight finish (Dalton Kincaid) and working again (Cook dinner) serving as his high three targets. That makes it unlikely Christian Gonzalez will shadow any one in all them on Sunday, even Shakir who primarily operates out of the slot, leads all Payments with 71 catches and 774 receiving yards.
The important thing for the Patriots could also be producing the kind of constant stress that has largely eluded them this season. Allen should be stored contained in the pocket earlier than he can prolong performs, which has devastated them in current matchups when Buffalo is 7-2 over the previous 4 years.
“Simply from watching him, the way in which he’s seeing the sector and going by way of his reads, and the flexibility to increase performs and switch to avenue ball is certainly an issue,” Mayo stated of Allen. “It’s going to take all of us on the sector to attempt to gradual him down before everything.”
Sport choose
Payments 44, Patriots 20
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