The Red Sox didn’t extend Lucas Giolito the qualifying offer…and that’s a good thing

The MLB offseason is already off to a fast begin following a World Sequence for the ages. The Cubs mentioned sayonara to Shota Imanaga. Alex Bregman opted out whereas Trevor Story opted in. And I’ve already checked to see if there’s a sport on at night time earlier than catching myself on three events — all within the span of the week.

Part of the current run of league-wide information was the checklist of gamers who had been tendered with the qualifying provide upon their classification as a free agent. A complete of 13 gamers got the roughly $22 million provide for the 2026 season previous to Thursday afternoon’s deadline to take action, that means they are going to web their former group a compensatory draft choose ought to they depart for greener pastures and signal with a special membership. Amongst that group had been the suspects we might’ve anticipated — the North Siders had been by no means gonna let famous person Kyle Tucker stroll with out not less than getting a comfort prize within the type of a free choose, and the identical goes for Philly with their DH Kyle Schwarber and Toronto with their Recreation 7 hero shortstop Bo Bichette.

A person who was notably not in that baker’s dozen price of gamers was Crimson Sox right-handed beginning pitcher Lucas Giolito, who bounced again from a long-term damage by posting a 3.41 ERA and 120 ERA+ (20% higher than league common; not unhealthy to your quantity three within the rotation) throughout 145 innings in 2025.

Regardless of that strong line on the floor, I’m grateful that the qualifying provide was not prolonged to Giolito.

Sorry, Lucas. You appear to be a depraved chill man who appreciated his time in Boston. You’re a cinephile; I’d love to speak about “One Battle After One other” with you. You’re excessive up on my checklist of Crimson Sox gamers I’d prefer to seize a beer with.

This can be a enterprise we’re speaking about, although, and my aid right here is solely in a enterprise sense.

Far be it from me to fall on a sword for Fenway Sports activities Group in the case of spending or not spending cash. The Crimson Sox, as a corporation, ought to by no means be in a spot the place they need to be developing a roster with the payroll because the number-one-with-a-bullet precedence—particularly after they discover themselves in a spot to take a step ahead and construct a legit contender after qualifying for the postseason in 2025. And hey, to be fully truthful: Lucas Giolito actually performed a job in getting us to that time. He had some legitimately nice moments for this membership in current months.

However $22 million is $22 million, man. I believe there was a reeeeeal probability Giolito was going to simply accept that supply, too (or Craig Breslow might’ve learn the market completely and Giolito would’ve denied it to web the Sox one other draft choose that would repay in dividends—however that’s not the world we reside in, now’s it?). FSG has infinite cash, positive, however the CBT and its penalties exist. I’m high-quality with John Henry signing the checks obligatory to place a winner on the sector, even when we do break past the stratosphere of the posh tax, however particularly whose checks he’s signing is of paramount significance.

Take into consideration how far $22 million might go on the open market or for an extension offered to a participant we commerce for this winter to spice up the roster. $22 million gained’t get you Pete Alonso alone these days, however that’s the lion’s share of the contract he’ll fetch this offseason. Identical goes for Schwarber. $22 million will get you very near getting pen to paper with the smorgasbord of arms which are free brokers or could possibly be out there through commerce—Dylan Stop, Framber Valdez, Joe Ryan, Michael King, Ranger Suarez, Tatsuya Imai, whoever tickles your fancy. If I needed to guess, all of these guys’ common annual values will likely be someplace within the 20’s.

Are we positive that Giolito will present related worth in comparison with guys like that on the mound in 2026? I’m not, respectfully.

We’re speaking a few man who simply posted the bottom Ok/9 charge of his profession (7.5) since 2018 whereas registering a 4.17 FIP, a far cry from his precise ERA. Giolito’s whiff charge in 2025 dropped by about six proportion factors in comparison with his 2023 charge, bringing his MLB rank in that metric from the 69th percentile (nice) two years ago down to the 28th percentile in 2025. For a man who’s calling card was quantity whereas additionally getting his justifiable share of strikeouts, that ain’t nice. His already not-so-great anticipated ERA and anticipated batting common metrics lately went down to five.06 (twelfth percentile, yuck) and .268 (14th percentile, double yuck) in 2025. Some guys can punch above their weight in the case of the anticipated metrics and the humorous math; I’m not satisfied Giolito might once more, although, and I actually wouldn’t need to commit $22 million to seek out out.

Now you, expensive reader, might level to the regular presence within the rotation that Giolito might provide for subsequent season. That’s not a foul level, particularly when you think about who was making up the pitching employees on the finish of the season we simply noticed. I’d retort by pointing to the plethora of pitchers we have already got ready within the wings, although. Early, Kutter, Sandoval, Criswell, Tolle, Perales, Dobbins, Harrison, and Fitts might all feasibly match into that quantity 4 or 5 spot within the rotation. I do know that a few of these guys might slot into the bullpen or be flipped for an additional starter, however the depth is in-house already. I believe somebody like Giolito doesn’t do a ton to lift the ceiling of the pitching employees—that’s what this rotation wants going ahead.

So with all of that in thoughts, can we need to commit $22 million—which would be the third-highest salary on the team as it stands right now entering 2026—on Giolito?

I wouldn’t need to run that gambit, so I assume you would say I wasn’t eager about Lucas QO-lito.

That’s proper. This whole weblog was an elaborate rouse to arrange a foul pun. Strive the veal, of us. Tip your wait employees.