It’s exhausting, someday after watching the mighty Dodgers end off the formidable-yet-bumbling Yankees (glad Liberation Day!), to suppose that the Red Sox might win the World Series subsequent 12 months. It could be significantly much less exhausting if, say, the ultimate two groups this 12 months had been the Rangers and Diamondbacks, like they had been final 12 months; when you squint exhausting sufficient, you would see the Sox in both of their areas. The playoffs are a near-total crapshoot with one rule: You gotta be in it to win it.
As of this morning, the Crimson Sox are +4000 to win the 2025 World Collection on my FanDuel app, tied with the Tigers and Brewers. On the brilliant aspect, they’re third within the division, with the Yankees (+750) and Orioles (+1100) far forward and the Rays (+5000) and Blue Jays (+7000) additional behind. What does this imply? Not a lot that we don’t already know. These odds roughly replicate what would occur in the event that they began the brand new season right this moment, and scarcely account for main offseason strikes.
Do I believe the Sox will make main offseason strikes? No. Perhaps one. However I can’t rule it out. And it’s vital to notice that every one of those odds are made up, largely to get you to lose cash. Checked out it from that angle, and 40-1 positive appears to be like just like the upside case from the sharps, and even then it’s price noting, even when it’s math I’m wholly inventing, that there are 30 groups and the Sox are “supposed” to win all of it 1 out of each 40 occasions — much less usually than if it was a totally random draw.
I don’t recommend betting on the Sox for any cause apart from pure nihilistic enjoyable, however I’m questioning what y’all take into consideration this outlook. To me, it says precisely what we’ve been fearing: Prepare for extra of the identical. Nobody with cash at stake — be it FanDuel or John Henry — appears to be bracing for any type of sea change that may put the Sox in true World Collection rivalry. Henry, specifically, appears content material to attend so long as he must for the tide to rise round right here by itself. It might work, however I’m skeptical it will occur subsequent 12 months. What about you?
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