Welcome again to Smash Or Pass, our offseason collection through which we study numerous free brokers and commerce targets to find out whether or not they make sense for the Red Sox. Subsequent up: a profitable reclamation mission who’s more likely to be traded this offseason.
I missed the Zack Littell expertise the primary time the Red Sox tried it, however I believe that I’m not the one one, provided that it consisted of a whopping two aid appearances in lower than every week in Might 2023, after which the journeyman was designated for task and signed by Tampa Bay. In lower than two years, the Rays used their satan magic to rehab Littell — on his third Main League staff, and sixth MLB group — into an above-average beginning pitcher, one who threw greater than 156 innings final yr with a 3.63 ERA. Now he’s a commerce goal, and the pitching-starved Sox could possibly be available in the market for a man that, two years in the past, they couldn’t even maintain round for a fortnight, and, extra just lately, .
So the query is: Smash or Cross?
The Smash Case: Growth Isn’t Linear
Littell is hardly the primary pitcher to come back alive in baseball middle-age, neither is he the primary one to take action in Tampa, the place rehabbing guys like him is virtually the secret. Lookin at his Baseball Savant web page, the very first thing that jumps out concerning the final two seasons is that his stroll price plummeted to elite ranges whereas his chase price stays fairly excessive; TLDR he will get folks to swing and doesn’t give free passes.
He has turned his profession round by easing off his four-seam fastball, which he used to throw practically 60 % of the time and now throws solely about 30 % of the time. Making up the distinction are elevated slider and split-finger utilization, in addition to the Rays-related introduction of a sinker and a changeup. Briefly, junk. He’s not right here to overpower anybody—he’s right here to maintain everybody off-balance. As FanGraphs’s Jeff Zimmerman mentioned, he “attacks batters backwards.” The excellent news is that an out’s an out both approach.
About half of Littell’s profession innings have been pitched during the last two years, that means that he’s undoubtedly not overworked. The one query is longevity, and the one strategy to reply it’s to see it occur. For a Sox staff in determined want of innings, it could possibly be price it.
The Cross Case: Peaky Blinders
If Littell’s 2024 was a revelation, there’s some proof that it might have been his ninetieth percentile consequence, and signing him could be akin to studying the Smash case with blinders on.
Sure, Littell was profitable in 2024 as he threw his fastball lower than ever earlier than, however that appears to have been because of necessity as a lot as the rest. Per Zimmerman at FanGraphs, he misplaced a whopping 4 MPH on the pitch over the course of the yr, and, throughout hotter months, has had a tough time retaining the ball within the park:
Month: HR/9
Apr: 0.8
Might: 0.9
Jun: 2.3
Jul: 1.6
Aug: 1.7
Sep: 0.7
That’s nice for fantasy baseball — purchase, commerce excessive, purchase low, repeat — but it surely’s much less engaging for a Purple Sox staff who could be wedded to Littell throughout the voracious-slugging canine days of summer time. Littell’s fastball has at all times been an excellent one for hitters to sq. up, and even at 30 % utilization, one other haircut of some MPH might make all of the distinction between helpful starter and nightmare gasoline. Given that he’s 29, and has had one good season, anticipating his fastball to regain its previous life looks as if wishful considering for me, particularly with out the magic Tampa potion that helps everybody do what they do down there.
The Verdict: Cross
I’m joyful for Littell. He reminds us that good issues can occur to gamers who handle to only stick round. I’m pretty sure we’ve seen the very best of him, although, and would moderately the Sox spend their prospect capital elsewhere.
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