Smash or Pass: Red Sox Trade Target Dylan Cease of the Padres

Final offseason, the Padres traded Juan Soto understanding he would go away for greener pastures boatloads of cash when his contract expired. Dylan Stop received’t command the identical wage as Soto, however he’s on an expiring contract and the Padres could also be motivated to commerce him for future property. In the event that they land Roki Sasaki, the chance of buying and selling Stop will doubtless improve.

The Smash Case: He’s acquired a cool mustache

Dylan Stop bears a exceptional resemblance to Julius Pringle. I can’t discover Pringle’s skilled statistics, however I can solely think about they had been wonderful. You’ll be able to’t be the face of a significant potato chip model with out punching hitters out.

Outdoors of the mustache, Stop possesses qualities the Red Sox worth in pitchers. He throws his finest stuff and he throws it usually. If we have a look at BaseballSavant’s swing/take profile, we are able to see how effectively Stop performs within the zone. On pitches over the guts of the plate, he was +12 runs. He dominates on the perimeters of the strike zone, posting 28 runs. Run values are considerably summary, however the lengthy and in need of it’s that Stop is superb when he’s across the zone.

It’s a fastball/slider combo from Stop and never a lot outdoors of that. His fastball is tough (95 MPH) with good vertical motion and a little bit of perceived lower. Whereas hitters don’t usually take the pitch for referred to as strikes, they develop the zone and whiff regularly making the fastball an efficient providing. He additionally hardly ever makes errors with the pitch. Of 75 pitchers who threw 800 or extra four-seamers in 2024 solely 12 threw fewer pitches over the guts of the plate. His stroll fee (8.5%) suggests management points, however a few of that could be by design. It’s a function, not a bug.

Whereas Stop’s fastball is nice, his slider is the place he makes his cash. It’s a gyro slider with good velocity (86 MPH) that he can throw both in or out of the zone. Once more, it’s hardly ever ever over the guts of the plate and principally lives within the “shadow” zone. Hitters have an extremely robust time recognizing the pitch, resulting in an absurd 44% whiff fee.

He’s additionally extremely robust on right-handed hitters. In 2024, righties hit .189 towards him. He struck out almost one-third of the righties he confronted. If righties can’t hit the ball, they’ll’t pull it over the Inexperienced Monster.

The Go Case: He’s not as constant because the Pringle.

Stop is a two-pitch pitcher. His fastball and slider characterize 85% of his pitches. Because of this, if he doesn’t have an excellent really feel for one in every of them, hitters can deal with the opposite, resulting in the occasional blowup outing and a few free passes. He additionally throws the occasional curveball and sweeper, though neither of them holds a strike fee over 60%.

Lefties can current Stop with difficulties at instances as effectively. It’s not a obvious problem, however it’s price noting. His fastball isn’t as efficient at incomes strikes towards opposite-handed hitters, making it harder for him to place away these pesky lefties. Once more, it’s not a large flaw as lefties nonetheless hit simply 0.212 towards him.

Verdict: Smash

After I have a look at Stop, I don’t see very many purple flags. As I discussed, he has occasional blowup outings the place he can’t find one in every of his pitches. Perhaps you don’t need him to steer your rotation due to these. However, he strikes out a ton of hitters and has a reasonably easy strategy that’s confirmed efficient. Who is aware of, perhaps the best pitching coach can provide him a cutter to show to for additional strikes, or improve his curveball utilization to steal strikes and reset his mechanics when he doesn’t have the texture for his fastball.

Craig Breslow usually emphasizes buying controllable pitching. Stop solely has one 12 months left on his deal earlier than he hits free company. If the Purple Sox are critical about successful the division in 2025, and they need to be, they need to be prepared to embrace the one-year rental. With out understanding the worth of buying Stop, I’m on board with the concept. Smash.