Welcome again to the 2025-26 version of Smash or Pass, during which we look at potential free agent and commerce targets to find out whether or not the Pink Sox ought to pursue them and what it might take to land them. Subsequent up, a future star who was not too long ago posted by NPB.
Who’s he and the place does he come from?
Munetaka Murakami is a left-handed hitting 25-year-old who has been enjoying in Japan’s NPB—and completely tearing it up offensively—since he was a youngster. Lately posted by the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, he’s about to turn into a giant leaguer in MLB. He has till December 22 at 5 p.m. ET to move a bodily and signal on the dotted line.
He performed third base in Japan and spent a little bit of time at first base too. Forgive me for treating that like an afterthought however protection isn’t his calling card. He may technically play at both or each corners, however he’s higher suited to first base than third, and truthfully, he actually needs to be a full-time DH.
Murakami broke the NPB single-season home-run file for a Japanese-born participant. He’s gained two back-to-back Central League MVP awards in Japan and helped his group win a Japan Collection title. He was a star for Japan within the World Baseball Basic in 2023, clobbering a walk-off double, then hitting a second-deck house run with an exit velo of 115 mph within the championship sport, on the way in which to defeating the US.
One offseason rating named Murakami the seventh-best free agent this yr, and groups are salivating over what his ceiling is likely to be.
Offensively, he’s been in comparison with Shohei Ohtani—and never just because they’re each from Japan. That they had very similar profiles on the daybreak of their respective MLB careers.
To take a look at it via one other lens, he is called Murakami-sama in Japan. Followers name him that as a result of solely a kami-sama, a god, may do what he does on the plate. And that nickname was Japan’s Word of the Year in 2022 which is among the coolest accolades you may ever obtain. Even Taylor Swift has by no means completed that, to my information.
Let’s drill right down to some numbers.
He completed within the top five in homers in NPB in 2025, although he performed solely one-third of the video games (as a result of harm).
His max exit velocity in 2025 was 116.5 mph—more durable than all however 23 MLB sluggers. That elite record contains a number of 2025 House Run Derby individuals, in addition to Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani.
TL;DR, simply give me his 2025 stats
In 56 video games Murakami’s slash line was .273/.379/.663, to associate with 22 house runs and 47 RBI. He’s no speedster however not a slouch on the bases both; he additionally stole 4 bases.
Why would he be an excellent match for the Red Sox?
He has a sky-high ceiling as an influence hitter. He’s younger and thrilling. Third base is open proper now, and first base is unsure. And it certain could be good to gobble up all the perfect gamers, Dodgers-style.
Why wouldn’t he be an excellent match on the Pink Sox?
Even with all of the potential he has, Murakami is understood to wrestle with excessive velocity, and with secondary pitches. The transition to MLB will exacerbate these weaknesses, since Murakami will face higher pitchers and be uncovered to extra pace and extra secondary pitches than he’s seen earlier than.
He additionally strikes out loads (not a shock, with all these house runs), and his charge has been growing over the previous three seasons. In 2025 in Japan, his whiff charge was 36.7%, and strikeout charge was 28.6%. That’s excessive for NPB, and would measure among the highest in MLB too. As mentioned, Japanese hitters are inclined to lose a little bit of their shine once they face harder MLB pitching, so you possibly can rely on his strikeout numbers going up, and on his contact charge taking place.
The factor about his contact charge, although: it’s already gone down, steadily, over the previous a number of seasons. In 2025, his contact charge on pitches within the zone was 72.6%, which was last among qualified hitters in NPB. The MLB common is 82.5%. That’s the common, however even energy hitters who strike out loads have contact charges above 75%. For comparability, in 2025, Ohtani’s was 78.6%, Aaron Choose’s was 79.6%, and Cal Raleigh’s was 81.3% (take that, Choose). Once more, we’ll count on Murakami’s charge to fall nonetheless additional as soon as he enters MLB and faces harder pitching than he’s competed towards earlier than.
His protection is a matter, with -92 DRS at third base in 696 video games, and -25 DRS at first base in 263 video games. Can the Sox afford that?
Though the nook positions are actually in flux for the time being for the Sox, we nonetheless have a primary baseman in Triston Casas. Extra importantly, the Pink Sox declare they’ve entered a brand new period, the place protection will turn into a precedence (thank god). If that is true, Murakami isn’t our man as a result of his sport is as a hitter, interval. We’ve been down this highway with Rafael Devers, and nonetheless have DH-only Masataka Yoshida on the roster, in addition to a variety of others who would possibly slot out and in at DH daily.
What wouldn’t it take to get him?
Some projections say 5-6 years at $17-20M per yr; some go fairly a bit decrease due to the unknowns of shifting to MLB, in addition to the lower in manufacturing, and maybe his latest harm too (he missed fairly a little bit of the 2025 season with an indirect harm). Some suppose that Murakami will beat any projection on the market as a result of latest historical past says that’s what occurs while you’re a extremely proficient younger slugger on the free agent market.
It doesn’t matter what, the fortunate winner should pay the Swallows a posting price of $9.275M, plus 15% of any contract quantity over $50M. For instance, the hypothetical six-year $140M contract predicted by CBS Sports would carry a $22.775M posting price on prime of that.
Right here’s his house run into the higher deck within the closing sport of the World Baseball Basic in 2023. Towering.
All accounts say Murakami-sama is a particularly aggressive man, so I’ll assume that he’s actually motivated to work on bettering his contact charge, decreasing strikeouts, and adapting rapidly to MLB pitching. I’ll maintain assuming and say that he’ll reach doing that, which may make him a really particular hitter. My argument isn’t together with his offensive potential.
I’m going to Go as a result of, to me, signing Murakami would really feel like taking a step backwards for the Sox. Now that the Pink Sox have pledged to work on defensive fundamentals all through the group, this isn’t the time to make an enormous dedication to a poor fielder. And the reality i that, I don’t belief Alex Cora or different powers-that-be to chorus from tinkering with no matter positional flexibility would possibly exist right here. I can simply think about shifting Murakami round: each corners, out and in of DH, and god assist me, he’s bought one sport beneath his belt within the outfield, possibly AC desires to run him on the market whereas Ceddanne Rafaela performs second base due to matchups. No thanks! We bought a style of some fairly candy infield protection in 2025 (whereas Ceddanne solidified his popularity in heart) and it was wonderful. Decide to the bit and see issues via on protection now.
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