Rumored Red Sox free agent target Anthony Santander: Smash or pass?

Welcome again to Smash Or Pass, our offseason collection through which we look at varied free brokers and commerce targets to find out whether or not they make sense for the Red Sox. Subsequent up, a slugger from an AL East rival.

Who’s he and the place does he come from?

He’s Anthony Santander, who rejected a qualifying supply from the Orioles firstly of the offseason. He simply turned 30 in October, he’s a switch-hitter, and he’s from Venezuela.

The Orioles, in case you want reminding, signed 2024 Red Sox slugger/outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a $16.5 per-year contract. They’re additionally the staff with whom Santander made his Main League debut again in 2017, when he was simply shy of 23. And, sure, they’re a contending staff largely due to Santander’s efforts, however they’re a staff that has loads of younger promise due to a teeming farm. Santander was named to his first All-Star sport in 2024 and raked 44 residence runs, inserting third within the Majors after two surefire Corridor of Famers in Aaron Choose and Shohei Ohtan. Within the course of, he earned himself his first Silver Slugger. And so, it’s solely a matter of time earlier than the “Curiosity Kings” speak ramps up once more with one other thrilling free agent goal.

As if Santander’s versatility on the plate wasn’t engaging sufficient, his historic energy for a change hitter could shift the tables in his favor for groups that didn’t win the Juan Soto sweepstakes (see right here: the Boston Pink Sox, but additionally his former staff, the New York Yankees.)

Is he any good?

Brief reply: Sure. He’s good.

Longer reply: You heard after I talked about that, in 2024, the solely gamers to hit extra residence runs are each completely going to the Corridor of Fame, proper? That adopted up a 28-home-run efficiency in 2023, and 33 in 2022. Santander additionally accounted for 100 RBIs final yr, and his strikeout fee can also be falling, all the way down to 19.4%.

His xBA, nevertheless, falls in simply the twentieth percentile at .228, alluding that, if it’s not a house run, it might be an out. Additionally, his defensive WAR is at a -2 Outs Above Common, a twenty eighth percentile rating, and he doesn’t run very effectively. In a hitter’s ballpark like Fenway, a gradual outfielder is usually a concern defensively in addition to on the bottom paths.

However, who wants a base path??? Man, have a look at this spray chart!!!

Tl:dr; simply give me his 2024 stats.

.235/.308/.506, .814 OPS, 44 HR, 129 Ok, 58 BB, 3.3 WAR (his profession greatest)

Why would he be a great match for the 2025 Pink Sox?

Once more…. that spray chart beckons nice issues. Additionally, the Pink Sox are actually lacking their residence run chief after O’Neill signed with Santander’s outdated staff. There are some who say that Wilyer Abreu stands out as the proper fielder of the longer term for the Pink Sox, if he’s not traded away. However when you take away O’Neill’s 31 residence runs in 2024 and exchange them with Abreu’s 15, then the Pink Sox would fall outdoors of the highest ten in residence runs and into the underside half of MLB, if solely barely. With lingering harm considerations for Triston Casas, the Pink Sox don’t have a surefire energy risk apart from Rafael Devers. Santander would mitigate that.

Why would he not be a great match for the 2025 Pink Sox?

To repeat myself: there are some who say that Wilyer Abreu stands out as the proper fielder of the longer term for the Pink Sox, if he’s not traded away. Abreu is a man with a 94th percentile exhausting hit fee and elite protection, each issues Santander doesn’t have. If persevering with to develop Abreu is a comfort prize in lieu of Santander’s energy…. it’s not a foul one.

What would he price?

He has extra remoted energy than Tyler O’Neill, he’s the identical age as Tyler O’Neill, and he whiffs lower than Tyler O’Neill. He additionally declined a qualifying supply, one which Tyler O’Neill by no means acquired. Anthony Santander cash has gotta be not less than Tyler O’Neill cash, proper? And anticipate a yr greater than what O’Neill acquired, if not two. The truth that Santander hits from each side of the plate is a giant upside. My prediction: 4 years, 84 million.

Present me a cool spotlight.

Listed here are forty-four cool highlights. Attempt to not get dizzy watching the place these balls land.

Smash or move?

Let me make this clear: Juan Soto was by no means going to play for the Boston Pink Sox in 2025. I’m truly shocked the bidding acquired that top from John Henry. Now, let’s get extra reasonable: Santander is a man who may remedy two issues for the 2025 Pink Sox by supplying energy and a righty bat. Simply have a look at the spray chart once more. Smash.