The Patriots are set to make historical past Sunday.
Oddsmakers have slated the Pats as greater than 10-point underdogs for simply the fifth time this century. The Niners are 10.5-point favorites, regardless of a stunning and injury-riddled 1-2 begin. Just like the Patriots, San Francisco is stomaching a handful of key absences, however two main variations have propped them up as the most important favorites of Week 4: star energy and very good depth.
The reigning NFC champions are poised to beat the lack of All-Professional working again Christian McCaffrey, Professional Bowl wideout Deebo Samuel and two-time Professional Bowl defensive deal with Javon Hargrave due to different Professional Bowl-caliber gamers. The Patriots, in the meantime, proceed to problem-solve with fringe backups at left deal with and with out inside linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley in opposition to a run-first workforce. As soon as once more, the Pats destiny ought to lie on the line of scrimmage, the place they laid the inspiration for his or her upset at Cincinnati, narrowly misplaced in opposition to Seattle and obtained whooped versus the Jets.
How will Sunday unfold? Right here’s what to observe for:
When the Patriots run
Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled for a 3rd straight sport final week in opposition to the Jets. If he makes it 4 in a row, little else will matter on the bottom.
However assuming Stevenson breaks his streak, he ought to discover room in opposition to the 49ers protection, particularly with out Hargrave, one of many league’s higher run-stoppers. San Francisco ranks twenty first in yards allowed per carry and bottom-10 in opposition to the run by DVOA and Professional Soccer Focus grades. When speeding, the Patriots should first discover and block linebacker Fred Warner, a three-time All-Professional.
Warner has a league-high three pressured fumbles and is arguably the very best linebacker in soccer. Apart from focusing on him on the second degree, search for the Patriots to run to the suitable in key conditions. In keeping with PFF, Stevenson is averaging six yards per carry off the suitable facet, following the lead of Mike Onwenu, the Pats’ greatest offensive lineman.
However even when Stevenson constantly powers his strategy to first downs, ball safety stays the No. 1 goal on each play.
“Rhamondre might be top-five within the league so far as breaking tackles. Now, that’s a dual-edge sword,” Pats coach Jerod Mayo mentioned this week. “You at all times need these guys to interrupt tackles and attempt to make these large explosive performs, however in doing that, typically the ball will get free. We at all times speak about double in hassle. If individuals are round you, put two fingers on the soccer.”
When the Patriots move
Step 1: block Nick Bosa.
Step 2: hold blocking Nick Bosa.
The Patriots won’t jump-start their passing sport except they restrict Bosa’s stress, particularly working in opposition to whichever backup left deal with – rookie Caedan Wallace or Demontrey Jacobs – begins on Sunday. The four-time Professional Bowler has two sacks and 6 QB hits this season, and sometimes works reverse opposing left tackles. He may single-handedly wreck the Patriots’ plan Sunday; a defensive “nightmare,” as offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt described him on Thursday.
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Apart from specializing in Bosa, play-action figures to be a pillar of the Pats’ passing sport.
“I feel over the past couple days we have finished a very good job with the quote-unquote ‘self-scout’ to have the ability to say, ‘Hey, these are the runs that we’re good at, and these are those that groups know that we’re good at. We will attempt to promote performs off of (these runs),” Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett mentioned this week.
Brissett, who’s accomplished 60.9% of his passes for 368 yards and a landing this season, hit slot receiver DeMario Douglas for a 22-yard acquire off play-action versus the Jets. Play-fakes must also open up area for tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper over the center of the sector.
When the 49ers run
No McCaffrey, no downside.
New 49ers working again Jordan Mason ranks first within the NFL in missed tackles forced and runs covering 10 yards or more, per PFF. Mason is averaging greater than 100 speeding yards per sport, as the focus of a run-heavy offense. Tackling him at first contact will probably be key for a Patriots protection that missed a dozen tackles final week.
Count on San Francisco to check the center of the Patriots protection, the place Bentley is lacking and defensive tackles Daniel Ekuale (74%) and Davon Godchaux (68%) are monitoring to play extra snaps than they ever have of their careers. Behind them, Bentley’s substitute, Raekwon McMillan, whiffed on two tackles in his beginning debut and fellow linebacker Jahlani Tavai missed a team-worst thrice.
When the 49ers move
Brock Purdy has handed for extra yards this season than the Patriots have gained whole.
True story.
Purdy has leaned closely on one-time backup receiver Jauan Jennings, who leads the Niners with 18 catches, 276 yards and three touchdowns. Jennings’ emergence has helped offset Samuel’s damage and Brandon Aiyuk’s sluggish begin. Final week, Jennings broke out with 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns in an in depth loss to the Rams.
“I imply, he can do every part,” Pats defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington mentioned of the 6-foot-3, 212-pounder. “(He is) sturdy, good on the high of the route. Clearly we noticed final week, he was the go-to man.”
As for Aiyuk, he is did not crack the 50-yard mark in any of San Francisco’s three video games, totaling 11 catches for 119 yards and nil touchdowns. He stays lots harmful, nevertheless, coming off consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with 15 mixed touchdowns. Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez may discover himself shadowing both of these receivers Sunday, given Aiyuk’s observe document and Jennings’ emergence.
“(Aiyuk)’s quick, sturdy, bodily, good on the catch level,” Gonzalez told the Herald. “And so they use him in numerous methods. They movement him lots, do a variety of issues. He is a very good receiver.”
Prediction
49ers 26, Patriots 10
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