Red Sox Smash or Pass: Free Agent Willy Adames

Welcome to Smash Or Pass, our offseason collection wherein we study numerous free brokers and commerce targets to find out whether or not they make sense for the Red Sox. Subsequent up, a center infielder free agent.

Who’s he and the place does he come from?

Willy Adames is a 29-year-old free agent shortstop from the Dominican Republic who initially signed as a global free agent with the Detroit Tigers. There’s a sort-of Red Sox connection there as a result of David Price was concerned within the three-way commerce in 2012 that despatched Adames to the Tampa Bay Rays. In fact, Adames was within the minors then, and Astro’s Dad was nonetheless a number of years away from even turning into a Red Sox, however perhaps you may pull that out of your again pocket at the moment and shock somebody. Whereas Adames rose by way of the ranks of the Rays’ minor leagues, he was their primary prospect for 3 seasons working (rising as excessive as quantity 16 nationally). He made his MLB debut in 2018 and was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021, the place he’s been ever since.

Is he any good?

Properly, any participant that has the Astros, Mets, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays all rumored to be vying for his providers in all probability has one thing occurring. And but there are reportedly concerns across the league about signing him. Not solely was there a regression in Adames’s protection within the 2024 season, but in addition as a result of several high-profile, expensive shortstop contracts haven’t worked out in recent seasons. Any Sox fan is aware of that our personal Trevor Story is on that listing, and so are Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Javy Báez.

So let’s get that out of the best way now, whereas additionally declaring that Story’s historical past of accidents is one purpose to analyze this contract. Right here’s the aforementioned regression:

• Adames had 16 Outs Above Common (OAA) in 2023, however dropped to only 1 OAA final season.
• Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) for Adames dipped, big-time, from +8 in 2023 to -16 (sure, that’s a destructive 16) final season.

However sure, he has been traditionally good, even elite. He’s definitely the highest shortstop on this free agent class, and one of many premier free brokers total, no less than outdoors of pitchers.

In 2022, he broke the Brewers franchise dwelling run file for a shortstop when he smacked 31 homers, besting Robin Yount by two.

In 2024, Adames tackled one other file for power-hitting shortstops: this time it was an all-MLB file for four-baggers mashed in consecutive video games by a shortstop. He hit 5 and shares this MLB file with 5 different gamers. Typically area of interest data like this could drill down just a little far for my style, however they’re enjoyable, and likewise—anytime somebody’s title is sharing or beating data from the likes of Corridor of Famer Robin Yount, coulda-been Corridor of Famer Alex Rodriguez, and present stars Corey Seager and Trea Turner…effectively, you’ve acquired my consideration!

Tl;dr, simply give me his 2024 stats.

With the Brewers, Adames hit .251/.331/.462 (118 OPS+) with 33 doubles, 32 homers, 112 RBI, 93 runs scored, 21 steals and three.1 WAR.

He reached profession highs in homers, RBI, hits, doubles, walks, and stolen bases. He declined the Brewers’ Qualifying Supply.

Why would he be an excellent match for the Red Sox?

He’s a right-handed batter; we want extra of these.

He doesn’t get injured. He performed 161 video games in 2024, and his career-low is 139 video games. Wouldn’t that be refreshing? Adames’s reliability and good well being would possibly give again a number of grey hairs and wrinkles from final season, huh?

He hit a whole lot of doubles final season, and the Monster will assist him to hit extra, after all. Though I wouldn’t name him a profession speedster, (having stolen not more than eight bases till his 21 final season), if he intends to make use of that velocity instrument shifting ahead, that may be a enjoyable addition to the Sox current model of baseball.

There’s speak that he’s keen to maneuver to second or third base, which may work in our favor, nevertheless it sounds as if he’s demanding the next value for that flexibility (extra on that in a minute).

Why wouldn’t he be an excellent match for the Pink Sox?

As talked about above, there’s some danger—however when isn’t there on this extraordinarily imprecise science of predicting the longer term, understanding luck, well being, and all of the kinds of human frailties! The danger right here can be resulting from Adames’s 2024 regression on protection.

And this regression offers me pause as a result of, as you understand, that was a sticking level for me all final season. I’ll say it once more: the Sox merely can’t compete in the event that they proceed to prioritize financial savings and positional flexibility over essentially the most primary baseball expertise. What shocked me was that they didn’t lead MLB in errors on the finish of the season (as they usually did all through it), solely being error-prone sufficient for second place. If we’re critical, that may’t proceed.

Listed below are my issues about Adames’s protection because it pertains to the Sox:

• The drop in OAA and DRS from 2023 to 2024 (talked about above)
• He dedicated 20 errors in 2024 (good for fourth place in MLB). That’s greater than he’s ever dedicated; he had 14 errors in 2023 and 2022
• He completed 2024 with a .963 fielding share

I’ve seen numerous theories as to why Adames sort of blew it defensively final yr. An area Brewers article from mid-season attributes Adames’s struggles to not attacking the ball, and maybe not seeing the ball clearly off the bat. Small pattern dimension, however the three chosen movies appear to bear that out: he waits too lengthy for the ball to return to him and form of will get eaten up by it. That’s precisely the sort of elementary mistake that the Sox can’t abdomen any longer. Others have mentioned he turned an excessive amount of focus towards enhancing his offense, or posited age, or gave it as much as one of many mysteries of the Milwaukee universe. Regardless of the subject, it doesn’t appear to have been accidents or the standard tensions and stressors.

Inconceivable to know this at this time limit, however an inexpensive query is whether or not 2024 was a one-off, or the beginning of a pattern?

What wouldn’t it take to get him?

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that Adames desires to proceed at brief, however may very well be open to a place change for the precise cash and the precise group—that’s, one which’s critical about successful.

Common consensus appears to be that the vary for Adames’s subsequent contract is one thing like $150-200 million over six years. There’s speak that he already obtained a suggestion of $160+ for seven years from the Mets; that may be contingent on him shifting to 3rd base.

Rumors are that the Dodgers have additionally put in a suggestion for his providers.

It’s nonetheless unknown how or if the Sox are going to spend this offseason, so this would possibly all be for nothing. However Matt Gross has read the tea leaves and says we will.

Present me a cool spotlight.

Since I began off with so many caveats about Adames’ protection, let’s steadiness that out. Right here’s an unconventional however cool method to get the double play began: if it bounces oddly off your torso, merely nudge it alongside the bottom over to the second baseman, who will get the pressure at second and has simply sufficient time to nail the runner at first too. I really like the instincts and the dedication to getting it carried out!

Right here’s a much less comical double play that exhibits Adames’s defensive chops: a terrific dive and toss to second. It was so good that it introduced Pete Alonso to his knees haha.

Smash or Move?

I’ll be trustworthy; I’m of a divided thoughts. I’m involved in regards to the regression as a result of I’m dedicated (and the Sox could or could not agree with me on this) to doing higher on protection in 2025, dammit. What was incorrect with Adames final yr, and why couldn’t he or the Brewers pinpoint and handle it? Might Pink Sox teaching or a change of scene unlock some previous muscle reminiscence for fundamentals? Might an eye fixed examination reveal one thing so simple as the necessity for a pair of glasses?

With a wholesome Trevor Story, and Marcelo Mayer allegedly shifting up from the minors in 2025, we seemingly don’t have any want for a shortstop (barring accidents, or a commerce to interrupt up the infield logjam and purchase pitching). Might Adames transfer efficiently to second base (he has virtually no expertise there), and function an insurance coverage coverage at brief in case Trevor Story will get injured once more?

Final season, I used to be leaping up and all the way down to strengthen our protection whereas the Sox doggedly persevered with an inferior, usually AAAA-level, infield. However, now that we’ve come this far, circumstances have modified. I’d love to resolve the revolving door at second base, however is Adames the man to do it? In 2025, I feel we’d be capable to make one thing work with what we’ve. Are both Vaughn Grissom or Kristian Campbell (each right-handed bats, by the best way) an in-house answer? Like lots of people, I’m particularly thinking about Campbell, although he is probably not prepared to begin the season on the MLB degree. Romy Gonzalez looks as if a strong possibility to return off the bench, the place he’s had success in pinch hitting. Nick Sogard is a bench possibility additionally, in my thoughts. Enmanuel Valdez, for me, isn’t a part of the answer in any respect. I sincerely hope the Sox plans don’t embrace beginning any of those guys usually.

I feel Adames is a Move, given our want for vastly improved protection, the defensive uncertainties that he brings with him, and the potential that we could have in Grissom and Campbell proper now. Grissom must be prepared to begin 2025 wholesome, and Campbell could even win the beginning job. Each would earn far lower than Adames’s $20+ AAV and to my thoughts, these three are all considerably unsure, although for various causes. Adames doesn’t really feel like a surefire improve proper now.

This brings us again to Craig Breslow (and by extension, up the chain to John Henry). Is there some inventive wheeling and dealing involving Adames that I’m not seeing, that might improve us within the infield and within the (right-handed) batter’s field, whereas leaving cash for every little thing else we want? And by that, after all, I imply pitching. If the reply is sure, then please Craig, go forward and dream up a elaborate three-team deal that clears out the roster congestion, brings again some pitching and right-handed bats, and makes everyone joyful!

God assist me, if Trevor Story goes down once more, I’ll clearly be singing a special tune, however Move.