Red Sox Smash or Pass: Free Agent Target Juan Soto

Welcome to Smash Or Pass, our offseason sequence during which we look at numerous free brokers and commerce targets to find out whether or not they make sense for the Red Sox. Subsequent up, an outfielder who might command the most important common annual worth contract within the historical past of baseball.

Who’s he and the place does he come from?

He’s Juan Soto and he comes from the Dominican Republic, signing with the Washington Nationals in July of 2015 at the age of 16. He made his debut with Washington in Might of 2018, at 19 years previous, homering in his first main league begin. A 12 months later, he hit .333 with three dwelling runs within the World Series, serving to lead the Nationals to a championship a few days after his 21^st birthday. Soto was traded to San Diego on the commerce deadline of 2022, taking part in a year-and-a-half with the Padres, earlier than being traded as soon as once more to the New York Yankees for the 2024 season.

Is he any good?

C’mon now.

Listed here are the gamers that Soto compares most equally to, by his 25-year-old season:

Baseball Reference

Eight of these gamers are already within the Corridor of Fame or shall be no-doubters when eligible, Vlad Jr. is TBD, and Andruw Jones’ vote proportion has elevated annually (62% in ’24).

Soto is a generational expertise offensively with a profession .285/.421/.532 slash line, whose plate self-discipline is second to none. Since 2020, Soto has walked in 19.8% of his plate appearances whereas placing out 15.8% of the time, tallying extra walks than strikeouts in every of these 5 seasons. No different participant has extra walks than strikeouts in that timeframe, irrespective of how low you set the minimal PAs. Soto is up to now forward of the sphere it’s laughable.

Fangraphs

Soto’s barrel charges and hard-hit information are all within the high 1% percentile of baseball, 12 months after 12 months. He as soon as hit a ball 520 feet at Coors Field in the course of the Home Run Derby. He has hit 201 dwelling runs in his seven-year profession utilizing all fields, his dwelling runs dispersed between left, middle, and proper area virtually identically. My favourite spray chart is from 2021, it’s lovely.

Baseball Savant

In his 5 full seasons (excluding 2020 and his rookie 12 months), Soto has averaged 108 runs scored. He’s been dependable, having by no means performed fewer than 150 video games in any of these full seasons.

Soto does lag a bit with velocity and protection. His Dash Pace was the 36^th percentile this 12 months, and he’s by no means stolen greater than 12 luggage in a season. Defensively, Soto was a shocking finalist for the Gold Glove in 2024 regardless of having a negative-5 Outs Above Common. Nonetheless, he does have ten assists from the outfield in every of the final two seasons.

Tl;dr, simply give me his 2024 stats.

.288/.419/.569/.989. 31 doubles, 4 triples, 41 dwelling runs, 109 RBI, 128 runs, 7 stolen bases.

129 walks (18.1%), 117 strikeouts (16.7%).

8.1 fWAR, 7.9 bWAR.

Why would he be an excellent match for the Red Sox?

Juan Soto is a good match on any workforce, particularly a contending workforce, and the Red Sox are seemingly coming into their rivalry window beginning in 2025. There are solely a few gamers the place you intend every little thing else round a participant, and Juan Soto is one in all them. The hope is that he comes to a decision early sufficient in free company that Soto will be Half One of many determination tree. The longer he waits, the less free brokers can be found and the less potential commerce companions you’ll have.

Past his immense expertise on the sphere, Soto presents much more that is sensible for the Purple Sox. He confirmed he might deal with the large second within the playoffs earlier than his 21^st birthday, as a key piece serving to to steer the Nationals to the 2019 World Collection title. In 2024, Soto had quite a few massive hits that led the Yankees to the pennant whereas his co-star Aaron Choose thought he was in Spring Coaching. That included a three-run Tenth-inning dwelling run in Cleveland within the decisive Recreation 5 win. He sports activities a .281/.389/.538 playoff slash line with 11 dwelling runs in 43 video games.

Soto’s age coming into free company could also be his Most worthy asset. Having simply turned 26, he’s “coming into his prime” which is a scary thought. It’s arduous to consider many gamers who hit free company at this age, who weren’t posted from one other nation. Bryce Harper (26 y.o., 2019) most likely qualifies, however he had a few down seasons, as superstars go. Alex Rodriguez (25 y.o., 2001) definitely does. So most of the high gamers within the annual free agent class are at, or close to, 30 years previous which requires a workforce to pay for previous manufacturing and hope that the participant doesn’t fall of a cliff within the first half of the deal. It’s arduous to foresee that taking place with Soto, even when he indicators a 13-year deal, because the purple flags are arduous to search out. Except you’re offended by the Soto Shuffle after he takes a pitch, during which I’ve excellent news for you in that Soto no longer adjusts his crotch as a part of the Shuffle. Your children can nonetheless watch the video games. His protection isn’t nice however the great thing about Fenway is that 81 video games are performed in a “small” outfield in left, and there can be a 70/80 grade center fielder subsequent to him in Ceddanne Rafaela, who’s signed by 2031.

Lastly, there’s a nice latest historical past in Boston with Latin gamers, current and previous. Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez fashioned a trio of Dominican stars in Boston within the 2000s, having unimaginable success within the metropolis and had been beloved by followers. You’d should assume they’re getting in Soto’s ear slightly bit … properly, perhaps not Manny. Pedro has already agreed to leap on high of the dugout and have Soto in his gala, which is tough to show down. On the present squad, together with a number of Latin gamers, you might have a bilingual supervisor in Alex Cora, from Puerto Rico. Rafael Devers is Dominican and the considered them hitting consecutively in Ortiz/Ramirez style ought to have you ever foaming on the mouth.

Why wouldn’t he be an excellent match for the Purple Sox?

There may be not a single legitimate motive that Juan Soto wouldn’t be an excellent match for the 2025 Purple Sox, or past, however listed here are some causes that different foolish individuals have mentioned:

The Purple Sox have too many different wants. (Resolution: Commerce out of your strengths to amass your weaknesses.)

The Purple Sox have already got a full outfield of high quality gamers, and the highest prospect in baseball is an outfielder and developing in 2025. (Resolution: Not one of the outfielders at present within the main leagues is making the Corridor of Fame. Commerce two of them, for lots of pitching.)

The Purple Sox lineup is already too left-handed. (Resolution: Commerce different left-handed hitters, for pitching. Then, signal a right-handed hitter.)

He prices an excessive amount of. (Resolution: Don’t cost the very best ticket costs within the league when you can’t afford one of the best gamers in free company. And cease charging me $29.99 a month for NESN. That’s ludicrous.)

He received’t be value it on the finish of his contract. (Resolution: Hopefully we’re alive then. And he most likely will. Gamers with excellent plate self-discipline age much more gracefully than these with out.)

What would it not take to get him?

MLB Trade Rumors: 13 years, $600 million (46.2 AAV)

Fangraphs: 12 years, $576 million (48.0 AAV)

The Current Worth of Ohtani’s contract was a document $43.8 million per 12 months and each of those predictions have the Soto contract eclipsing that mark. Highest AAV + a complete that begins with a “6” might be the reply.

Present me a cool spotlight.

As a result of I refuse to glorify any massive hits he had for the Yankees, I’ll present you the huge dwelling run that Soto hit off Justin Verlander within the 2019 World Collection for the Washington Nationals. Verlander received the Cy Younger in 2019.

Smash or Go?

After the tone of the prior sections, I’m certain that “Smash” just isn’t a shocking conclusion. That is extra about the associated fee, the intent, and the chance that the Purple Sox might signal Juan Soto. The Purple Sox have been sarcastically known as “The Curiosity Kings” for years now, nevertheless it does really feel like there’s a distinct tone this offseason. I don’t imply from possession as a result of everyone knows how a lot worth their “phrase” carries, however moderately from the reporters, the brokers, and even ex-players like David Ortiz. Will the Purple Sox declare that providing 13×42 for $546 million is a greater than honest provide, with out going above and past? It would nonetheless fall $100 million quick, as a result of Steve Cohen is sitting in Queens, having already paid $141M for this preposterous sculpture that’s alongside him and appears to essentially need Juan Soto. “If Steve Cohen desires one thing, he will get it,” we maintain listening to. The Mets really feel just like the favorites, and a return to the Bronx appears affordable as properly. I’ll keep cautiously optimistic of a Purple Sox vacation smash.