The New England Patriots are searching for their first journey to the AFC Championship Sport because the 2018 season, and standing of their method are the Houston Texans.
The No. 2 seed Patriots will host the No. 5 seed Texans within the AFC Divisional Spherical subsequent Sunday with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium. New England defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 whereas Houston beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 within the Wild Card Spherical.
Earlier than this previous weekend, the Patriots hadn’t gained a playoff sport since Tremendous Bowl LIII in February of 2019.
The Texans have reached the Divisional Spherical six occasions as a franchise since getting into the NFL in 2002, they usually’re 0-6 in these video games. Will they lastly break by way of and beat the Patriots, or will New England take one other step towards the Tremendous Bowl?
Take a look at our Patriots-Texans preview and prediction beneath.
Current head-to-head
These two groups do not know one another very nicely.
The Patriots and Texans have squared off solely as soon as since 2021, and it was a 41-21 win for Houston at Gillette Stadium in Week 6 of the 2024 season. Stefon Diggs, who’s now the No. 1 vast receiver for the Patriots, caught six passes for 77 yards and a landing for the Texans in that sport, which was Drake Maye’s first career start.
These groups have met twice within the playoffs — the 2012 and 2016 AFC Divisional Spherical — and the Patriots gained by not less than 13 factors every time.
Key stats to know
Drake Maye put together an MVP-caliber regular season. He led the league in completion proportion, yards per try, EPA/dropback, QBR and passer score.
He did not have his best game against the Chargers, although. He accomplished 17 of 29 cross makes an attempt for 269 yards with one landing and two turnovers (one interception, one fumble). He additionally led the group with 60 speeding yards.
Maye’s 86.6 passer score towards the Chargers was his third-worst of the season. He has loads of room for enchancment this Sunday.
The Patriots have been the second-highest scoring group within the common season at 28.8 factors per sport, however they scored solely 16 within the Wild Card Spherical versus a really sturdy Chargers protection. They’ll face an excellent more durable problem subsequent Sunday towards the Texans, who might need the league’s finest protection.
That unit ranked No. 1 in yards allowed per sport, No. 1 in EPA/play, No. 2 in factors allowed per sport, No. 6 in opponent’s time to throw, No. 8 in sack proportion and No. 3 in opponent completion proportion through the common season.
The Texans performed eight video games towards playoff groups within the common season and allowed fewer than 20 factors in six of them. The Patriots offense may have a slim margin for error Sunday.
Patriots’ keys to victory
Proceed to generate constant cross rush
As a consequence of a number of accidents, the Chargers had one of many league’s worst offensive strains this season, and it confirmed Sunday night time: They allowed six sacks, 16 QB pressures and 11 QB hits. The Patriots blitzed all through the second half and received to Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert persistently.
Can they repeat that cross rush efficiency towards the Texans? Sacking Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is not tremendous simple. He is cellular sufficient to flee the pocket, and the Texans tied for the sixth-fewest sacks allowed within the common season.
However Houston’s o-line does permit stress. The Texans had the Twenty second-ranked cross block grade from Pro Football Focus, and ESPN ranked Houston 30th out of 32 teams in cross block win charge.
The Patriots will want one other dominant sport from Milton Williams and your entire entrance seven.
Shield the soccer
The Patriots misplaced the turnover battle 2-1 towards the Chargers and nonetheless gained by 13 factors. They in all probability will not be as lucky if that occurs once more.
Drake Maye threw an interception inside his personal 20-yard line (the cross was tipped, to be truthful) and misplaced a fumble when he ought to have simply taken a sack. He must be smarter with the soccer, as a result of each level goes to be invaluable towards an elite Texans protection.
Houston pressured the third-most turnovers with 29 within the common season and tied for the third-most interceptions with 19.
Texans’ keys to victory
Benefit from left aspect of Pats o-line
Rookie left deal with Will Campbell and rookie left guard Jared Wilson each struggled all through the Chargers sport. Campbell received beat on the play the place Maye was strip-sacked and misplaced the ball.
The Texans tied for the sixth-most sacks through the common season with 47 and ranked No. 2 in Professional Soccer Focus’ cross rush grades. Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson (12 sacks) are two of the most effective cross rushers the Patriots will face all season.
C.J. Stroud has to hold Texans offense
Stroud is 3-0 with 5 landing passes and two interceptions in his AFC Wild Card Spherical profession. However within the Divisional Spherical, he’s 0-2 with zero touchdowns.
The Texans averaged the second-fewest speeding yards per sport among the many 14 playoff groups, and the Patriots allowed solely 30 speeding yards to working backs towards the Chargers.
If the Patriots make the Texans one-dimensional on offense, does Stroud have the flexibility to place the group on his again and carry it to victory? It stays to be seen.
Prediction
David Butler II-Imagn Photographs
David Butler II-Imagn Photographs Drake Maye tallied 334 whole yards within the AFC Wild Card Spherical.
Patriots-Chargers was a low-scoring affair, and we should always anticipated an analogous end result Sunday in Foxboro. The distinction is the Texans are a more healthy group and pose extra of a risk on offense.
Maye did not have an ideal begin to the Chargers sport, however he discovered his groove within the second half when he accomplished 11 of 14 cross makes an attempt for 179 yards with one landing and a 142 passer score. If that Maye exhibits up Sunday, the Patriots might be in good condition.
Getting Milton Williams, Robert Spillane and Harold Landry III again from harm over the past two weeks has been an enormous increase for the Patriots protection. This unit ought to be capable of preserve the Texans underneath 20 factors and reduce the burden on Maye’s shoulders.
Rating: Patriots 20, Texans 16
Trending Merchandise
