On Friday evening, just some days earlier than the New England Patriots try to assume their rightful place as the category of the NFL (narrator: they didn’t), I used to be doing what any 28-year-old man does on a Friday evening: speaking about aid pitching. As I used to be scrolling Twitter, I ran right into a tweet from Sammy James, a co-host of the Play Tessie Podcast. Sammy is at all times considering outdoors the field relating to roster strikes, and pitched previous buddy Jalen Beeks as a possible match for the left-handed aid position within the bullpen.
He highlighted Beeks’ changeup, noting the remarkably low batting common and slugging proportion towards it. When you take a look at these numbers and nothing else, it seems to be an elite pitch. I dug in slightly bit additional, and whereas I discovered that the pitch was strong, I wouldn’t place it among the many league’s finest changeups.
None of it is a knock on Sammy. He’s bought nice insights and has as many concepts on easy methods to enhance the roster as anybody. On the similar time, I’ve written what appears like 1,500 pitcher evaluations, and don’t suppose I’ve ever damaged down my methodology.
The Purple Sox may use a left-handed reliever. Final season, Justin Wilson, Brennan Bernardino, and Chris Murphy had been the primary lefties out of the pen for the Purple Sox. Because it stands, none of these three is on the 40-man roster. Outdoors of Aroldis Chapman, there aren’t many left-handed relievers with main league expertise on the staff, making an addition to the group earlier than the season begins probably.
There’s not essentially a rush to accumulate a reliever. Whereas it’s undoubtedly a gap, as groups minimize down their rosters, there will likely be alternatives to discover a lefty, and so they received’t want a lot time to stretch out earlier than the season. Nonetheless, having our bodies in camp to see what you may have is an efficient factor. So, with all that being mentioned, let’s take a look at one choice and see what he may deliver to the desk for Boston.
The majority of my evaluation is completed with three web sites: Pitcher List, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs. Baseball Savant is at all times a good place to begin, only for their dashboard data.
I concentrate on the left and proper panels, though the center panel might be the most well-liked amongst individuals who faux that they know what they’re speaking about (that’s one other rant for one more day). On the left, we see the pitch utilization chart, damaged out by handedness. Handedness is every little thing. Garrett Crochet throws his sinker 16% of the time, which makes it seem like a secondary providing. After we break up it, we see it’s his most thrown pitch by a large margin to lefties at 37%. For Beeks, we are able to see he’s a fairly fastball-heavy pitcher, utilizing a changeup most frequently as a change of tempo, and mixing in a cutter towards lefties. On the fitting, I prefer to see the arm angle, as a result of it gives some context about pitch usages. Beeks is extra excessive, which implies he’ll probably have a tougher time producing East-West motion. The motion chart helps see how a lot of the plate a pitcher can cowl, however it’s onerous to attract conclusions from motion alone.
Pitching is about getting outs. The easiest way to get outs is to throw strikes. That’s what we search for subsequent: what pitches does he throw for strikes, and the way does he finish at-bats? Beeks is a left-handed reliever, and whereas the three-batter minimal rule means he’ll need to get righties out as nicely, I’m principally involved with what he does in same-handed matchups.
Going over to Pitcher Record, we are able to filter by handedness and see when Beeks is throwing every pitch.
The best aspect of the Counts tab is categorized into three sections: Early, Behind, and Two-Strike. Early consists of the primary two pitches of an at-bat in addition to 1-1 pitches, behind consists of 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, and 3-1 counts, and two-strike is any two-strike depend (duh). If it had been as much as me, I’d have a further view displaying the proportion of every bucket by pitch sort, however we are able to use Baseball Savant’s search function to search out that. Beeks, for instance, throws a four-seam fastball 58.3% of the time in “early” counts. Placing all of this collectively, it appears to be like like he makes use of his four-seam fastball and cutter to get strikes, and his changeup to place hitters away.
Now that we perceive what Beeks is making an attempt to do, we are able to assess his effectiveness. The overview tab on Pitcher Record is nice for this.
Paring it down to at least one pitch, we get good percentiles and averages, though typically I’m skeptical of how correct the percentiles are (They’re based mostly on whole stats and don’t change based mostly on the handedness filter, for instance). Regardless, strike fee is at all times the primary place I look, and Beeks fastball has an enormous quantity. It additionally comes with an enormous 60% zone fee, in addition to a mediocre 9.5% swinging strike fee and 15.2% referred to as strike fee. A 70% strike fee with swinging and referred to as strike numbers that low probably means the ball is in play so much. So how’s the contact?
Right here’s the place you may be tempted to have a look at batting common or slugging proportion, however these can lead you astray as a result of they’re solely contemplating the ultimate pitch of an at-bat. A pitch that’s thrown solely in two-strike counts out of the zone goes to have a low batting common, as a result of it is going to end in strikeouts, weak contact, or be taken for a ball. I like to make use of Ideally suited Contact Fee (ICR) as a result of the denominator is whole batted ball occasions, eradicating strikeouts from the equation. For a fastball, we need to see a quantity under 40%. In Beeks’ case, the 53.5% mark towards lefties is excessive. That’s partly as a result of the pitch is within the zone so typically, but additionally as a result of the form isn’t a lot of an outlier.
Beeks additionally throws nearly all of his cutters early in counts, though 34% utilization in two-strike counts is pretty excessive as nicely. A take a look at the metrics reveals a 15.8% swinging strike fee and a 17.1% referred to as strike fee. The strike fee is extremely low at 51%, whereas the zone fee can be pretty low at 38%. As a result of it’s in a position to return each referred to as strikes and swinging strikes, my assumption is he’s deploying it extra as a slider in two-strike counts. Trying on the heatmaps (under) that seems to be the case. Additional, should you take a look at the actions, he throws some cutters as onerous as 88 mph with much less vertical drop, whereas others are as sluggish as 82 mph.
The pitch returned a 44.4% ideally suited contact fee, which is excessive for an off-speed pitch that isn’t within the zone a lot. It didn’t induce many chases both. It was in a position to generate whiffs at a good fee, however it was a pitch that lefties dealt with nicely for probably the most half. Total, when trying on the pitches designed to be strike-getters, each are hit pretty onerous, and solely the four-seam returns constant strikes.
We’ll circle again to the strike-getting pitches, however let’s bounce forward to the changeup. Identical-handed changeups are controversial. Some folks hate them, some individuals are advantageous with them. I feel it depends upon the changeup, however that’s a dialogue for one more day.
Beeks throws his changeup 26.6% of the time to lefites, most of that are in two-strike counts. He throws it primarily down and inside to lefties, which at all times offers me pause, however it seems to work for him. Whereas it’s solely within the zone 35% of the time, the 42% chase fee and 20% swinging strike fee are each glorious. The ICR fee was 0%, however the pattern was extremely small. It’s been a strong pitch all through his profession, although, so it’s protected to say that hitters will proceed to battle with it.
Whereas his changeup is an efficient pitch, I’ll once more warning towards utilizing plate look stage stats similar to batting common towards as your barometer. Take Jojo Romero, for instance. He throws his changeup 22.3% of the time, and opponents hit simply .167 towards it. On the similar time, it was by no means within the zone and solely returned a 14% swinging strike fee and 50% referred to as strike fee. Whereas the pitch wasn’t getting punished, it additionally wasn’t doing its job by producing whiffs; batters had been simply letting it go for a ball. A .167 batting common may make you suppose it’s top-of-the-line changeups in baseball, however it’s wildly inefficient.
So now that we’ve checked out all three of his pitches towards lefties, what I see is a pitcher with an excellent putaway pitch, however one who must discover a option to get forward in counts. Whereas his four-seam returns strikes, it will get hit too onerous for him to throw it 50% of the time. His 2025 cutter reveals some promise in its swinging and referred to as strike numbers, however it doesn’t get sufficient chase to assist a 38% zone fee.
He was very profitable towards lefties in 2025, so there isn’t essentially a have to make modifications, however there’s room for enchancment early in counts. I’m speculating at this level, however a return to his 2024 cutter, which featured extra vertical carry and was barely tougher, may pay dividends. He used the pitch extra typically, and whereas it wasn’t returning strikes at a excessive fee, the contact towards it was poor. Excessive cutters can typically drop again into the zone for referred to as strikes, which might play nicely off his four-seam fastball. Once more, Beeks was nice towards lefties in 2025, however the contact stats towards his fastball counsel some regression there if he doesn’t make modifications.
I’ve written 1,500 phrases about Jalen Beeks to this point, so I received’t repeat the method, however it is best to. Use Pitcher Record and Baseball Savant, and inform me what you consider Beeks towards righties. It’s enjoyable. I promise.
There’s yet one more half I haven’t talked about, and it’s arguably an important. Watch the pitcher pitch. Whereas an enormous swinging strike fee can’t be faked, you may see a pitcher who’s lacking spots time and again and posit that they received’t have the identical success constantly. Within the case of Beeks, you’ll discover an unorthodox supply that appears to be misleading. It jogs my memory of Kutter Crawford, however the ball is hidden at his hip fairly than his ear. Nerds (like myself) run baseball (not me), however the sport continues to be performed on the sphere. There’s so much to be taught by watching.
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