Kendrick Bourne can try all he wants to recruit Tee Higgins to New England. The Patriots can hope and pray that Ja’Lynn Polk bounces again after a nightmare rookie campaign.
But when the Patriots are dead-set on discovering a real No. 1 broad receiver, their greatest guess may be the primary spherical of the NFL Draft.
We all know what New England followers are considering: Did not we undergo this in 2019 with N’Keal Harry, who lasted simply three underwhelming seasons in Foxboro? And do we actually belief de facto common supervisor Eliot Wolf to make use of a first-round decide on a wideout after seemingly whiffing on Polk and Javon Baker in 2024?
These are legitimate issues. However we’ve got excellent news: Since that fateful 2019 draft, the possibilities of discovering a productive receiver within the first spherical have been very excessive.
Beneath is an inventory of each receiver taken in Spherical 1 within the final 5 years (2020 to 2024). Of the 28 wideouts in whole, 18 presently rank among the many NFL’s prime 50 pass-catchers this season. Add in elite wideouts Chris Olave and Brandon Aiyuk — whose 2024 campaigns had been lower brief because of harm — and also you primarily have a 71 p.c likelihood (20 of 28) of touchdown a top-50 receiver with a first-round decide.
(Word: You’ll be able to click on or faucet every column to type the record by a selected stat.)
The Patriots currently own the No. 2 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft with a 3-12 report and are assured no worse than the fifth total decide. So, what are the chances they hit on an elite wideout with a top-10 decide?
Of the eight receivers taken within the prime 10 since 2020, 5 have no less than one 1,000-yard season to their identify (we’re counting Drake London, who wants simply 28 yards in his ultimate two video games to hit 1,000), whereas the opposite three are rookies — all of whom have no less than 700 receiving yards.
By the requirements of the Patriots, whose prime wideout, DeMario Douglas, has 541 receiving yards, that is primarily a one hundred pc hit price for top-10 picks.
Two different knowledge factors of word from this record:
- First-round picks account for seven of the highest 10 receiving yards leaders this season (eight if you happen to embody rookie tight finish Brock Bowers), and 10 of the highest 14 (11 together with Bowers).
- If the Patriots are all in favour of buying and selling down, six receivers drafted between No. 15 and No. 23 since 2020 have surpassed 1,000 yards this season: Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Brian Thomas, Jerry Jeudy and Zay Flowers.
The underside line? A receiver taken within the first spherical has a very good likelihood of being productive primarily based on latest draft historical past. The one true “busts” on the record above are Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Kadarius Toney, Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson. That is 5 out of 28, or underneath 18 p.c.
The plain alternative for New England in 2025 could be to draft Colorado two-way superstar Travis Hunter, who simply received the Biletnikoff Award as the perfect broad receiver in faculty soccer. The Patriots may deploy Hunter primarily as a cornerback reverse Christian Gonzalez whereas working him in on offense, or make him a full-time wideout.
If the Patriots wish to goal a pure broad receiver, nevertheless, in addition they may take into account buying and selling down and touchdown Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan or Missouri’s Luther Burden III, each of whom probably will go in Spherical 1. Ohio State wideout Emeka Egbuka may work his manner into the primary spherical, as effectively.
New England has a number of different wants, from offensive deal with to edge rusher to cornerback. But when discovering a real No. 1 receiver for Drake Maye is the purpose, utilizing a first-rounder on a WR in both 2025 or 2026 is the most secure guess.
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