Do the Red Sox have the best starting pitching in baseball?

To the extent that Craig Breslow was employed to show round Purple Sox pitching, you’ll be able to’t say he that hasn’t finished his job. In simply two offseasons, Breslow has utterly revamped the highest of the Sox rotation by aggressively buying one of many recreation’s finest pitchers in Garrett Crochet and two different latest all-stars in Sonny Grey and Ranger Suárez. In the meantime, numerous depth strikes mixed with inner prospect growth has given the Sox one thing I don’t suppose I’ve ever seen earlier than in my lifetime as a Sox fan: a genuinely ridiculous quantity of beginning pitching depth.

Baring any trades or freak accidents (keep off your bikes, boys!), the Purple Sox will open Spring Coaching with TEN MLB-caliber beginning pitchers. It shouldn’t be all that stunning, then, that FanGraphs currently projects Red Sox starters to lead all of baseball in starting pitching fWAR.

Right here’s how the FanGraphs projections look proper now:

Projections are a useful gizmo. However they’re are additionally a blunt device that, by design, ignores quite a lot of essential nuance and context. Wanting on the projections for each Johan Oviedo and Patrick Sandoval demonstrates this. The pc solely pegs them to throw 80 and 54 innings, respectively, as a result of they’ve each not too long ago missed complete seasons recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure. However we human beings know that they’re each prone to be wholesome firstly of spring coaching. Likewise, the concept neither Connelly Early nor Patyon Tolle throws a minimum of 30 innings beggars perception.

So, moderately than look ahead through projections, I made a decision to look backward at issues that truly occurred. I took a have a look at the 5 groups who led baseball in beginning pitching fWAR during the last 5 seasons with a purpose to decide how groups really put collectively the most effective beginning pitching in baseball. Do the 2026 Purple Sox have what it takes to hitch this record?

2025: Philadelphia Phillies, 21.5 WAR

After I first began this train, I figured the reply to this query would virtually at all times be “depth.” In spite of everything, that is The Age of Tommy John, and baseball as an establishment seemingly has completely no concept methods to forestall or restrict pitching accidents. It could be sensible to imagine, then, that whichever workforce has the most effective beginning pitching in any given yr is the workforce that has the deepest beginning pitching.

The 2025 Phillies, although, belied that assumption. Excluding Aaron Nola, who struggled firstly of the season earlier than lacking important time with a rib cage harm, the 2025 Phillies rotation was remarkably wholesome. In reality, the workforce primarily used solely six beginning pitchers all season. And, importantly, these starters had been actually, actually good. 4 Phillies starters completed within the top-12 for fWAR in all of baseball, led by Christopher Sanchez, whose 6.3 fWAR was third in all of baseball. And, sure, the man who was twelfth in baseball in beginning pitching fWAR (however solely fourth on the Phillies, lol) is now on the Purple Sox.

So how did they do it? Well being and a rotation crammed with aces.

2024: Atlanta Braves, 17.4 WAR

As soon as once more, look to the Harm Checklist. The 2024 Braves had 5 pitchers who made a minimum of 21 begins. Not like the 2025 Phillies, although, the Braves solely had one ace within the rotation. Chris Sale gained the NL Cy Younger after posting 6.4 fWAR, whereas the Braves different 4 major starters all completed between 1.1 and three.5 fWAR.

In fact, there’s one thing else to notice concerning the 2024 Braves rotation: it didn’t embody Spencer Strider, who made simply two begins earlier than taking place for the yr. So how did the 2024 Braves put collectively the most effective beginning employees within the recreation? By starting the season with two aces (three if you wish to throw Max Fried in there, although 2024 was solely his fourth-best season by fWAR) after which getting good well being from their strong however unspectacular group of mid-rotation arms when a type of aces went down.

2023: Philadelphia Phillies, 17.4 WAR

The 2023 Phillies seemed extra just like the 2024 Braves than the 2025 Phillies: one ace on the high (Zack Wheeler, 5.9 fWAR), adopted by a strong group that stayed wholesome: Aaron Nola, 3.8 WAR; Taijuan Walker, 2.4 WAR, Ranger Suarez, 2.4 WAR, Christopher Sanchez, 1.8 WAR. Be aware, additionally, that having three pitchers who made 30 begins makes this rotation an enormous time outlier.

2022: Houston Astros, 19.2 WAR

Guys, I’m beginning to suppose well being has lots to do with beginning pitching success. As soon as once more, we see a workforce that primarily used solely six starters for the entire season. And, as soon as once more, we now have a rotation that was led by an ace on the high. On this case it was Justin Verlander, who put up 6.1 WAR after lacking the whole season the yr prior. Not like the 2024 Braves and 2023 Phillies, although, Verlander had a 1b in Framber Valdez, whose 4.4 WAR was good for eleventh in all of baseball. The remainder of the 2022 Astros rotation was stuffed out by strong however unspectacular performances by Christian Javier, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Jake Odorizzi.

2021: Los Angeles Dodgers, 20.8 WAR

Holy freaking depth! Three-fifths of the deliberate 2021 Dodgers rotation — Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Might, and Trevor Bauer — all missed important chunks of the season. Kershaw was sidelined for 2 months in the course of the summer time. Might went down for the yr after making simply 5 begins. And Trevor Bauer missed the ultimate three months of the season after he was suspended for being a chunk of shit. And the person who began the yr because the workforce’s sixth starter, Tony Gonsolin, additionally had two prolonged stints on the IL.

The Dodgers handled these absences by shifting David Value from the bullpen to the rotation in the course of the season (he would go on to begin 11 video games, offering 0.8 WAR in these begins), buying and selling for Max Scherzer (who was excellent in his 11 begins for the workforce, placing up 2.9 WAR), and utilizing lots of openers.

When followers and analysts speak concerning the significance of beginning pitching depth in up to date baseball, the 2021 Dodgers are the kind of workforce they’re considering of. But it surely’s essential to notice that this rotation was anchored by two aces on the high, as Walker Buehler and Julio Urias every began over 30 video games and completed fourth and seventh, respectively, in beginning pitching WAR.

So what must occur for the 2026 Purple Sox to have the most effective rotation in baseball? The well being of Garrett Crochet is an important issue right here, clearly. Every of those 5 groups had a minimum of one pitcher who compiled a minimum of 5 fWAR for the yr. For as deep because the Purple Sox pitching is, Crochet might be the one participant on the Purple Sox at present able to doing that. If he goes down, the Sox don’t have any likelihood of getting the most effective rotation in baseball, irrespective of how a lot depth they’ve.

Second, this record exhibits us that, regardless of all of the emphasis on depth, the most effective rotations have a tendency to make use of primarily solely six pitchers over the course of the season. This isn’t to say that depth is overrated — the 2024 Braves performing in addition to they did regardless of dropping Spencer Strider exhibits us that it’s not. But it surely does imply that it’s actually laborious to have an elite rotation for those who’re pressured to depend on your depth an excessive amount of. The 2021 Dodgers are very a lot the outliers right here.

So, to have the most effective rotation in baseball, the Sox will doubtless want (1) a minimum of one ace on the high of the rotation, and (2) 3-4 different starters who keep wholesome and put up round 2-3.5 WAR. It’s on this second issue that the Sox’ depth comes into play. If Sonny Grey has a disappointing season (not an unreasonable factor to fret about as he’s 36-years-old), can Patrick Sandoval substitute his innings with the near-all-star degree pitching he offered from 2022 by way of 2024? If Ranger Suarez or Brayan Bello goes down for the yr (and you understand somebody will!) can Connelly Early or Payton Tolle step in and step up?

We’ll discover out the reply to the query posed on this headline quickly sufficient. However in gentle of that proven fact that we’re just some years faraway from watching Corey Kluber take the ball on opening day, the mere proven fact that we will genuinely ask it’s a great factor.