2024 Red Sox In Review: Ceddanne Rafaela Showed Flashes

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2024 In One Sentence

Amidst some rising pains on the plate, Ceddanne Rafaela stepped up for quite a few clutch hits whereas showcasing his defensive versatility.

The Positives

The Fangraphs rankings and write-up upon prospect commencement was almost excellent for Ceddanne Rafaela. The 70, and even future 80, rankings are few and much between and so they have been the attract of Rafaela within the minor leagues. We noticed grainy twitter movies of improbable catches that he made which gave us hope for the subsequent Coco Crisp (glove model) or Jackie Bradley (glove and arm model) patrolling the outfield at Fenway Park for years to come back.

Nonetheless, as soon as Trevor Story suffered an damage within the opening week which might preserve him out for a lot of the season, Rafaela wanted to make use of one other weapon in his arsenal: defensive versatility. When all was mentioned and finished, Rafaela began 72 video games in heart subject, 71 at shortstop, and 4 at second base in 2024, whereas additionally making a couple of late-game appearances at third base. He performed 647 innings at shortstop, barely greater than the 631 he performed in heart subject. Statcast put Rafaela at a negative-7 for Outs Above Common, however Rafaela held his personal at brief, taking part in a lot of the season at his non-primary place as a rookie, making clear enhancements because the season went on.

In heart subject, Rafaela was terrific, exhibiting his instincts with an ideal first step off the bat, night time after night time. He ranked within the high 25% for Outs Above Common (+5) amongst outfielders. By the Defensive Runs Saved metric (+12), solely Jarren Duran and Daulton Varsho ranked larger as heart fielders. And let’s face it, it’s extra enjoyable once you’ve received a middle fielder who could make performs like this:

Rafaela received robbed by not being a Gold Glove finalist on the “Utility” place. I’m unsure how the voters are defining “Utility” this season however he was that. I count on a lot of this needed to do with Rafaela being a rookie, and that he’ll win a number of within the outfield in future years. Congratulations to Dylan Moore of the Mariners who performed 5 positions in a mediocre trend this season.

On the bases, Rafaela’s 70-grade velocity was good for an 87^th percentile dash velocity and 19 stolen bases, albeit whereas being caught 10 occasions. Although Rafaela wasn’t on base a lot this yr, he made the massive hits depend. He had 75 RBI and most of his harm got here on the finish of the order. In 426 plate appearances hitting 9^th, Rafaela slashed .253/.275/.411 with 13 HR and 61 RBI. He had quite a few huge hits late in video games with runners on base, not letting the second get to him.

The Negatives

Because the Fangraphs write-up additionally mentioned, “his offensive manufacturing is harm by his reckless strategy”.

What if I informed you that Rafaela didn’t take a stroll for the final 7 weeks of the season? Like, not as soon as.

Though his .274 OBP was not the worst (Gelof .270), he did have the bottom stroll price in all of baseball at 2.6%. In actual fact, there have been solely three gamers within the MLB who had worse than a 1:5 BB:Okay ratio. With 15 walks and 151 strikeouts, Rafaela’s was worse than 1-to-10.

Because the season went on, pitchers targeted on breaking balls down and away and as soon as Rafaela received behind within the depend, it was principally all they threw.

Rafaela was one in every of 5 hitters in baseball with a 41% O-Swing or extra on Fangraphs (their model of “Chase Price”). His was almost 50%. There’s in all probability somebody on the Colorado Rockies SB Nation website writing the identical article about Ezequiel Tovar as I’m in the present day.

Greatest Second

On July fifth, when the Red Sox nonetheless maintained a Wild Card spot and have been simply 4 video games within the loss column behind the Yankees, Rafaela stepped up in additional innings in opposition to Tommy Kahnle and delivered one of many clutch moments of the Purple Sox season.

The Large Query

Can Rafaela lay off the breaking balls down and away?

That may appear particular however it will likely be the distinction between whether or not he’s a nine-inning a recreation participant for the rest of his contract, which runs by means of 2031 (8-years, $50M), with a staff possibility for 2032. The scouts have identified this for a very long time however the degree of success that Rafaela can attain within the Main Leagues on the offensive aspect will come all the way down to his skill to put off of pitches out of the strike zone. On the inner-half, Rafaela does harm:

However we can’t have this…

2025 And Past

Rafaela did all that the staff requested of him in 2024, taking part in probably the most innings of the season at his secondary place, gathering 571 plate appearances as a rookie. The staff has made a reasonably sturdy funding in him by shopping for out his arbitration years and whereas it is a low-risk transfer due to the protection Rafaela almost-certainly will present, it’s the plate self-discipline that might want to enhance to get him to the subsequent degree to change into a 3-4 WAR participant. With Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu already on the town, and primary general prospect Roman Anthony flattening the door, it’s possible that one in every of these gamers is traded within the subsequent few months, Rafaela included. Assuming that he stays in Boston, we’ll a minimum of be capable of take pleasure in these 70-grade traits that Rafaela possesses.

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