FOXBORO — A fierce debate is raging for NFL MVP, with yet another week for Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and Rams QB Matthew Stafford to make their circumstances to voters.
Stafford’s candidacy took an enormous hit on Monday evening, when the 11-5 Rams fell on a nationwide stage 27-24 to the Falcons in a contest through which Stafford went simply 22-of-38 with extra interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two).
In the meantime, Maye was coming off the best quarterback performance of the season, when he went 19-of-21 for 256 yards with 5 touchdowns in simply 2.5 quarters in opposition to the Jets. Maye didn’t simply seem like the MVP in that recreation, he performed like one of the best quarterback within the NFL.
Maye is at the moment the betting favourite for the dignity at -295, whereas Stafford presently stands at +225.
“Simply an honor,” Maye mentioned Wednesday of being within the working for MVP. “I’ve informed everyone that has mentioned some issues within the locker room, ‘It’s us. It’s not simply me, it’s us within the locker room.’ It’s actually a crew deal, I feel. They are saying ‘participant,’ however I feel wins assist that. So clearly, there’s been some nice seasons across the league from lots of gamers, and it’s an honor, but in addition on the identical time, we’ve acquired work to do.”
The argument for Stafford rests closely on counting stats. He’s accomplished 65.2% of his passes for 4,448 yards with a league-leading 42 touchdowns and eight interceptions for a 108.8 passer ranking. He’s rushed 28 occasions for -2 yards and no touchdowns.
Maye has accomplished a league-leading 71.7% of his passes for 4,208 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions for a 112.9 passer ranking. He’s rushed 98 occasions for 406 yards with 4 speeding touchdowns. When discussing conventional stats, it’s price noting that Maye additionally leads the NFL with 8.9 yards per try.
Together with speeding, Maye (4,614) has extra whole yards than Stafford (4,446), although Stafford (40 TDs) nonetheless has Maye beat (34 TDs) in whole scores.
Maye’s resume rests extra on superior stats. Maye leads the NFL in QBR with a 76.5 ranking, whereas Stafford (70.1) ranks fourth. We’ll get into this later, however sure, QBR does account for the standard of protection.
Maye leads the NFL in CPOE (+8.9%), whereas Stafford ranks thirteenth (+1.6%). Maye ranks first in EPA (+139.4) and EPA per play (+0.24), whereas Stafford ranks second and fourth, respectively, in these classes. Maye and Stafford each common 9.0 meant air yards per try. Maye has Stafford beat on accomplished air yards per try and per completion.
Stafford (second) does rank increased than Maye in DVOA (fourth), one other metric that accounts for the standard of opponent. He additionally has the next PFF grade (93.2) than Maye (88.9).
And power of schedule is the largest knock in opposition to Maye. The Patriots have a .383 power of schedule and .365 power of wins, whereas the Rams have a .555 power of schedule and .517 power of wins.
“We play within the Nationwide Soccer League,” Maye mentioned. “Each crew’s acquired nice gamers that receives a commission some huge cash. So, it’s not like we’re enjoying, shoot, Foxboro Excessive College down the street. We play who’s on our schedule, and we are able to’t management that. Simply making an attempt to go on the market and win. Plenty of these groups that we do play are good, and so they’re within the Nationwide Soccer League for a cause.”
No, the Patriots can’t management their schedule, however voters can take it into consideration.
The Patriots and Rams did face six frequent opponents this season. Maye and the Patriots have been 6-0, whereas the Rams have been 4-2. Maye accomplished 70.0% of his passes with 14 whole touchdowns and three interceptions for 292.3 yards per recreation, a 117.6 passer ranking and +0.26 EPA per dropback. Stafford accomplished 67.2% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions for 255.8 yards per recreation, a 102.9 passer ranking and +0.08 EPA per dropback, per stats pulled by Evan Lazar of Patriots.com.
There are two different circumstances in opposition to Stafford. First, Maye and the 13-3 Patriots received the AFC East title and are nonetheless in rivalry for the No. 1 seed of their convention. The 11-5 Rams completed third within the NFC West and can end with the No. 6 seed of their convention.
Stafford additionally has a considerably stronger supporting forged. He primarily has two No. 1 broad receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, the most effective offensive-minded head coaches in Sean McVay, and a speeding assault that ranks seventh in EPA per play.
He has a fan in Maye.
“I simply watch him on tape loads; we have now some crossover video games, and man, he’s particular with the soccer,” Maye mentioned. “The way in which he throws it and the way he matches in tight home windows. His no-look, and he’s acquired some swagger. So, I’m an enormous fan of his recreation. I do know we performed him final yr and talked to him briefly after the sport, however no, I in all probability ought to have went as much as him earlier than the sport. I’ve been an enormous fan of his for a very long time. Simply discuss pure throwers, any platform, any angle, he does it at a extremely excessive degree, and it’s been enjoyable watching him.”
Maye has one borderline No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs, an excellent offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and a speeding assault that ranks 18th in EPA per play.
Stafford has the second-lowest stress charge this season at 26.8%, whereas Maye’s ranks twenty eighth at 38.4%.
It’s not out of the realm of risk that Stafford backup, Jimmy Garoppolo, may have nonetheless led the Rams to the postseason, given the remainder of the expertise on the roster.
It’s arduous to think about the Patriots ending this season with a successful report with a backup quarterback as an alternative of Maye.
That’s what the NFL’s Most Precious Participant primarily breaks all the way down to.
Finally, voters should determine in the event that they worth counting stats or general effectivity.
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