The Tampa Bay Rays accomplished two vital trades this afternoon. First, they dealt Brandon Lowe to Pittsburgh as a part of a three-team cope with the Astros concerned as effectively. Tampa bought two prospects again within the deal: Jacob Melton, an outfielder from Houston, who has some main league expertise, in addition to Excessive-A pitcher Anderson Brito from Houston. In addition they despatched beginning pitcher Shane Baz and his three years of management to Baltimore in return for 4 prospects (Slater de Brun – OF, Caden Bodine – C, Michael Forret – RHP, and Austin Overn – OF), together with a Aggressive Steadiness Spherical A draft choose.
It’s laborious to ever actually know what the Rays are planning. Are they pondering two steps forward, and that is all lining up for them to maneuver three prospects to herald a fair higher, extra cost-controlled main leaguer than those they despatched out? Did they give the impression of being across the division and see your entire AL East* loading up, notice that they’ve completely no probability of competing in 2026, and due to this fact punt to 2027?
(*Aside from the Boston Pink Sox. They aren’t loading up. They haven’t signed a single free agent but this offseason. One thing that they’ve in frequent with solely the Colorado Rockies.)
The most important takeaway from these trades is that the Rays have been keen to make a deal inside the division with the Baltimore Orioles. Buying and selling a younger pitcher in Baz, with three years of management left, is out of the odd. If they’re of the thoughts that they don’t have the horses to compete in 2026, then the following participant to be on the transfer needs to be Yandy Diaz. Diaz is 34-years-old and has one yr left on his deal, which pays him $12M however counts for $9 AAV towards the aggressive steadiness tax. Diaz would even have a conditional choice that vests for 2027 at $13M if he tallies 500 plate appearances this upcoming season.
Let me see right here: an inexpensive right-handed bat, who performs first base, hits the ball laborious, hardly ever strikes out, and doesn’t require a “long-term deal”? I do know a workforce that will be enthusiastic about that sort of participant.
Diaz’s energy numbers in 2025 have been definitely inflated by taking part in at Steinbrenner Area, a minor league area that, it needs to be famous, has the identical dimensions as one other workforce within the division’s main league area. 18 of Diaz’s 25 dwelling runs got here at dwelling a season in the past, so it could be applicable to taper the expectation again to the 15 dwelling run hitter that he has been for many of his profession. Nonetheless, over the previous 4 years, a pattern measurement that I really feel much more snug with, Diaz has been among the many greatest hitters in baseball with a .301/.379/.461 slash line. He ranked tenth in MLB throughout that time in wRC+ (min. 1500 PAs). A number of the names behind Diaz in that metric are surprising.
Fangraphs
Over these 4 years from 2022-2025, Diaz’s .301 batting common is 4th in MLB, his .379 OBP is seventh, and with a ten.3 BB% and 14.0 Okay%, his BB:Okay ratio is twelfth in baseball. For what Diaz lacks in dwelling runs, he makes up for in doubles, tallying 128 doubles in that point. With Fenway Park having the primary park factor for doubles over the previous three years, Diaz could be a doubles machine in Boston. He nonetheless stings the ball at 34-years-old, displaying a 94th percentile Exhausting Hit% and Common Exit Velocity a season in the past with a sprig chart that utilized all fields.
Statcast
Diaz performed 114 video games at designated hitter for the Rays a yr in the past and 37 at first base. Throughout these 37 video games, he amassed a negative-7 outs above common, which isn’t very best. Nonetheless, his right-handedness helps complement a few of the different left-handed bats within the DH/1B combine for Boston, and this isn’t a workforce that has precisely prioritized protection at first base lately.
With just one “sure” yr remaining on Diaz’s contract, together with a vesting choice for a second, it appears possible that the Sox might get a deal carried out with no need to incorporate the “better of the perfect” prospects in return. I wrote last month that there are not any excuses for why this workforce shouldn’t spend previous the second luxurious tax threshold, however till they show in any other case, we must always not count on them to. In accordance with @RedSoxPayroll right now, the workforce has $38.7M to spend earlier than reaching that threshold, which might permit them so as to add one bat at a better value, and one at a decrease one. Diaz could be the proper match for that second designation, supplied that the opposite hitter can higher contribute within the dwelling run division. Now that we all know the Rays will make trades inside the division, all of the extra purpose for Craig to select up the cellphone.
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