The Boston Pink Sox made their first main transfer of the offseason on Tuesday, acquiring three-time All-Star right-hander Sonny Gray in a commerce with the St. Louis Cardinals. Grey will add much-needed depth to Boston’s beginning rotation, however what sort of upside does the 36-year-old provide at this stage of his profession?
Pink Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow clearly nonetheless thinks extremely of the 13-year veteran as he parted methods with right-hander Richard Fitts and promising left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Clarke. Grey is owed $41 million in 2026, however the Cardinals pays $20 million of that hefty wage. So with a price ticket of about $21 million, the Pink Sox will owe Grey roughly what they’d have paid Lucas Giolito had they prolonged the guy righty a qualifying provide.
Grey makes excellent sense as a Giolito alternative, and opposite to standard perception, he is nonetheless able to taking over the No. 2 starter function behind Cy Younger runner-up Garrett Crochet subsequent season if Boston does not add one other massive arm. This is a deeper dive into Grey’s current numbers, which ought to make Sox followers optimistic about Breslow’s newest transfer.
Stats present Grey was unfortunate in 2025
A fast look at Sonny Gray’s Baseball Reference page might go away some Sox followers scratching their heads. His 2025 ERA (4.28) marked his worst since 2021, and his 1.23 WHIP was his highest since 2018. Nonetheless, a more in-depth look exhibits he should have a few of his All-Star stuff.
Grey’s FIP final season was a good 3.39, so a very good chunk of these runs that contributed to his 4.28 ERA had been out of his management. That was the fourth-largest FIP/ERA hole amongst certified right-handed starters in 2025.
Sticking to the concept of Grey as a Giolito alternative, Giolito was the antithesis of Grey in 2025. He completed the marketing campaign with a rock-solid 3.41 ERA however a 4.17 FIP, indicating he had some luck on his aspect.
Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet… Sonny Grey?
In 2025, Grey struck out 201 hitters whereas strolling solely 38 over 32 begins. These spectacular totals gave him one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratio within the Nationwide League and the fourth-best in MLB, trailing solely Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Bryan Woo.
That was no fluke. In 2024, Grey notched 203 strikeouts and 39 walks over 28 begins. He and Crochet are among the many 5 MLB pitchers to file a minimum of 200 strikeouts in every of the final two seasons, per ESPN.
A stabilizing presence
Not like a few of the veteran hurlers Boston has introduced in over the previous couple of years, Grey has been remarkably sturdy. Age hasn’t modified that because the 36-year-old made 32 begins in 2023, 28 in 2024, and 32 once more in 2025. He has pitched 166 or extra innings in every of the previous three seasons.
Even when he is now not an All-Star-caliber arm, Grey ought to present worth as an innings eater who can publish each fifth day.
Projections love Grey for 2026
Steamer projections, that are broadly used to foretell future efficiency in baseball, are high on Gray for subsequent season. The mannequin has Grey ending 2026 with a 3.68 ERA, a 3.44 FIP, and a 3.9 fWAR that ranks tenth amongst MLB starters and fifth within the AL. If these projections are even remotely correct, Grey profiles as a authentic No. 2 for the Pink Sox.
That mentioned, Breslow and Co. should not draw back from including one other affect arm (Joe Ryan, anybody?) to the combination.
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