Should the Red Sox be worried about Alex Bregman’s massive drop in walk rate?

The Red Sox’ signing of Alex Bregman didn’t simply push Rafael Devers off third base, it additionally generated a variety of hype. There was a celebrity coming to city. Along with nice protection, he introduced a profession .272/.366/.483 line to Boston.

Bregman had two large years in 2018 and 2019, when he was price 7.6 and eight.9 bWAR, respectively. He completed fifth and second for the AL MVP award these seasons. And he walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances in 2018 and an insane 17.2% in 2019, when he led MLB with 119 walks.

After 2019 he settled into a reasonably constant participant with a few 4.5 bWAR tempo. From 2020-2023, he averaged a .261/.361./442 with a 12.4% strikeout charge, 12.6% stroll charge, and a BABIP of .268. That’s a really stable contributor.

However, like Mark McGuire, I’m not right here to speak in regards to the previous. And the Alex Bregman of at present certain seems a bit completely different than he did from 2017 to 2019.

In 2024 Bregman put up a stroll charge beneath 7%, his lowest stroll charge of any full season. His uncooked variety of walks plummeted from 92 to 44. Runs are clearly tied to OBP, and his runs scored fell from 103 in 2023 to 79 in 2024. What occurred?

Let’s check out Bregman’s strike zones in 2023 and 2024.

Baseball Savant

It’s laborious to get significantly better than that. Up and in? He take the pitch. Up and away? Yup, he’ll stroll on that. Low and in? Certain, doesn’t thoughts if he helps himself. Low and away? In fact he’s taking it!

Certain, he’s speaking extra walks from the excessive stuff than the low stuff, however it is a stark pink vs blue setup.

However as you possibly can see it…didn’t fairly maintain up in 2024.

Baseball Savant

Final yr he was all the way down to just one very pink quadrant. And just a little lite pink. If it’s up and away that’s actually all he was tuned in for.

What actually went fallacious right here? Bregman wasn’t placing out extra in proportion. Was he having hassle choosing up the ball inside? Had been pitchers higher ready? Can the Crimson Sox repair this? Was it simply an off-year?

For what it’s price, FanGraphs’ myriad projections present this as a blip, predicting a bounce again to double digits in stroll charge this yr (or 9.9% which is fairly shut).

The 2024 model of Alex Bregman was nonetheless good. That man hit 26 house runs and performed protection at third base that Rafael Devers would give, effectively, I don’t know precisely, however he’d have to present loads, to match.

However a sub-.800 OPS man shouldn’t be who the Sox thought they had been signing at $40 million a yr. That man, nevertheless, will in all probability be out there as a free agent subsequent offseason. If the walks are again, Bregman might not be.